1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	344334	Disney's Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit	Current	44	7.39	5.54	2.00
			Estimated	300	7.01	5.72	2.01

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Take on the role of Sora, Goofy, Donald and Kairi & Riku on a journey through the memorable worlds of Kingdom Hearts and rid them of Heartless! Collect sets of dice and work together in this cooperative game based on the hit video game series to take actions to protect each other, attack Heartless, collect potions, and seal the door to save six worlds without letting the darkness take over! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/344334

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Disney’s Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Disney’s Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Disney’s Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	344334	Disney's Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit	1.00	5.54	7.39	2.01	44
1	2008	38506	Witch of Salem	0.91	6.07	6.63	2.49	1,887
2	2008	69544	Ik Hou van Holland Spel	0.89	5.46	4.14	1.00	48
3	2020	295949	Adventure Games: The Grand Hotel Abaddon	0.88	5.74	7.55	1.50	237
4	2019	296419	Sherlock Holmes: Baker Street Irregulars	0.87	5.55	6.77	1.67	83
5	2019	275100	The Aquicorn Cove Board Game	0.87	5.54	6.20	2.17	118
6	2016	198824	Guédelon: Le Jeu	0.87	5.52	7.05	2.33	31
7	2002	4983	Der Herr der Ringe: Die Zwei Türme	0.86	5.52	5.79	1.81	123
8	2016	195253	Naruto Shippuden: The Board Game	0.86	5.53	6.35	2.29	113
9	2019	236801	Wayward	0.86	5.53	6.75	2.67	61
10	2020	300023	Die verlassene Bibliothek	0.85	5.54	6.17	1.86	101
11	2002	7519	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Board Game	0.84	5.47	4.34	1.33	46
12	2015	177160	Frontier Stations	0.83	5.58	6.67	1.89	124
13	2008	30370	E.T.I.: Estimated Time to Invasion	0.82	5.52	5.76	2.32	182
14	2019	249692	Rare Roses	0.82	5.52	6.70	2.00	52
15	2020	298352	The Shining	0.80	5.57	6.10	2.09	273
16	1978	19781	Save the Whales	0.80	5.51	6.47	1.00	30
17	2006	33569	Wildcraft!	0.78	5.49	5.58	1.14	96
18	2005	21881	Family Guy Trivia Game	0.78	5.47	4.12	1.00	43
19	2013	144417	Der Hobbit: Smaugs Einöde	0.77	5.51	6.28	1.50	66
20	2012	127436	Der Hobbit: Eine unerwartete Reise – Das Spiel zum Film	0.76	5.52	5.78	1.74	239
21	2020	288606	Coraline: Beware the Other Mother	0.76	5.51	6.52	2.00	48
22	2001	1315	Africa	0.75	5.71	5.99	1.75	1,306
23	2010	75449	Firenze	0.75	6.60	7.25	2.55	2,973
24	2017	226519	Exit: The Game – The House of Riddles	0.75	6.06	6.89	1.68	1,231
25	2015	169502	Firefly: Fistful of Credits	0.75	5.48	5.26	2.86	91

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Disney’s Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	344334	Disney's Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit	5.54	1.00	5.54	7.39	2.01	44
1	2008	38506	Witch of Salem	5.52	0.91	6.07	6.63	2.49	1,887
2	2020	295949	Adventure Games: The Grand Hotel Abaddon	5.04	0.88	5.74	7.55	1.50	237
3	2010	75449	Firenze	4.96	0.75	6.60	7.25	2.55	2,973
4	2008	69544	Ik Hou van Holland Spel	4.88	0.89	5.46	4.14	1.00	48
5	2019	296419	Sherlock Holmes: Baker Street Irregulars	4.86	0.87	5.55	6.77	1.67	83
6	2017	226518	Exit: The Game – The Sunken Treasure	4.85	0.75	6.47	7.08	1.85	2,864
7	2019	275100	The Aquicorn Cove Board Game	4.84	0.87	5.54	6.20	2.17	118
8	2007	30381	Hamburgum	4.83	0.74	6.50	7.05	3.07	3,178
9	2013	113997	Tajemnicze Domostwo	4.82	0.72	6.71	7.15	1.86	5,082
10	2016	198824	Guédelon: Le Jeu	4.81	0.87	5.52	7.05	2.33	31
11	2018	226520	Exit: The Game – The Sinister Mansion	4.80	0.74	6.51	7.37	2.55	2,074
12	2018	244918	Exit: The Game – The Mysterious Museum	4.78	0.75	6.40	7.19	2.15	2,038
13	2016	195253	Naruto Shippuden: The Board Game	4.76	0.86	5.53	6.35	2.29	113
14	2002	4983	Der Herr der Ringe: Die Zwei Türme	4.75	0.86	5.52	5.79	1.81	123
15	2019	236801	Wayward	4.74	0.86	5.53	6.75	2.67	61
16	2020	300023	Die verlassene Bibliothek	4.73	0.85	5.54	6.17	1.86	101
17	2000	823	The Lord of the Rings	4.72	0.72	6.58	6.74	2.56	14,948
18	2019	269968	Exit: The Game – The Haunted Roller Coaster	4.65	0.75	6.22	7.20	2.05	1,335
19	2015	177160	Frontier Stations	4.64	0.83	5.58	6.67	1.89	124
20	2002	7519	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Board Game	4.58	0.84	5.47	4.34	1.33	46
21	2016	193737	Star Trek Panic	4.56	0.73	6.22	7.00	2.13	1,748
22	2017	226519	Exit: The Game – The House of Riddles	4.55	0.75	6.06	6.89	1.68	1,231
23	2008	30370	E.T.I.: Estimated Time to Invasion	4.53	0.82	5.52	5.76	2.32	182
24	2019	249692	Rare Roses	4.53	0.82	5.52	6.70	2.00	52
25	2019	283934	Exit: The Game – Theft on the Mississippi	4.50	0.73	6.14	7.18	2.75	1,069

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	344334	Disney's Kingdom Hearts Perilous Pursuit	The Op				Video Game Theme: Kingdom Hearts	Cooperative Game
								Re-rolling and Locking
								Set Collection

Individual Game Analysis